Ryan the strongest candidate in 2016?

A recent poll by Gravis Marketing in Montana showed Paul Ryan beating Hillary Clinton by 14 points – 51% to 37%. That’s to be expected in a red state, though Montana sometimes teases Democrats with close polls during the race, and McCain won with less than 3% of the vote in 2008. Jeb Bush and Rand Paul also beat Hillary, but by 9% and 8%, respectively.

Is it possible Ryan will be the strongest GOP candidate in 2016? It is way too early to quote the polls as gospel, but Ryan has name-recognition, smarts, policy chops, and youthful good looks in his favor. Both sides, if they’re honest, respect his policy acumen. He has won reelection several times pretty easily in his relatively purple district, showing that he can win voters.

Another recent Gravis poll, this one in Iowa, showed Ryan and Jeb both tied with Clinton. If accurate, this would be pretty impressive in such a purple state that Obama won twice. The national average at RealClearPolitics shows Ryan within single digits against Hillary. It would be nice to see polls including other candidates like Marco Rubio and Scott Walker as well.

What do you think?

Advertisements

GOP 2016 nomination race: best and worst-case field of candidates

In 2011-2012, the Republican candidates for President were rather weak, leading to a feeling of dissatisfaction among many Republicans as they surveyed the field. Mitt Romney had his ardent supporters, but many people who ended up supporting him recognized his weaknesses but simply felt he was better than his opponents in the race. The list of GOP candidates who may run looks quite a bit better than the list of candidates who ran in 2012, but what if a lot of them decide not to run? Will a lot of people be underwhelmed again next year as they try to decide who to support? For me personally, here are some groups of candidates that I’d love, and others that I’d be underwhelmed with.

Worst case first. If these are the candidates, I’d feel pretty underwhelmed:

Chris Christie, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Peter King, Rick Santorum.

Unfortunately, the above scenario is entirely possible. The establishment would probably coalesce around Chris Christie, who probably doesn’t have as many flaws as Romney did, but like Romney, will have trouble uniting the base and the establishment. The conservative grassroots could split 4 ways between Paul, Perry, Cruz, and maybe Carson, depending on how much they value experience in government. It’s not clear to me which one would be the biggest threat to Christie. But all of these guys are flawed – some (or maybe all) with electability issues, some with various scandals or investigations into their conduct that they could be tarred with (particularly Perry and Christie), some with peculiar/kooky views and statements (particularly Carson, but also Paul); none of them look very likely to unite the base and establishment better than Romney did, except maybe Perry.

I’m expecting Christie, Paul, Cruz, and Santorum to run for sure. Probably also King, but that’s inconsequential; he has no shot.

Here are the candidates that I would love to see in the contest:

Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Nikki Haley, Kelly Ayotte, Bobby Jindal, Mike Pence.

It’s highly unlikely that all of them would run, especially with Christie and the others already in the race. But if two or three of them would run, I would be quite delighted with the choices. I really hope at least one of them runs.

Here are some names that I am not sure how I feel about:

Mike Huckabee (I like him, but can he raise money and can he unite the party, outside of just social conservatives?); Jeb Bush (Impressive record, but can the base forgive him for supporting amnesty for illegal immigrants and Common Core? Plus, is the public ready for another Bush?) John Kasich (on his way to an easy reelection, but can he distinguish himself other than that? I don’t really have a feel on how well he connects with voters or how good his record is); Scott Walker (is he too polarizing to be very electable on a national level?)

 

Top Republican campaign ads of 2014

Here is my list of some of the top 2014 GOP campaign ads so far. But keep in mind that this is a subjective list. Some of them reportedly played a large part in helping a candidate win a primary or take the lead in polls, but I have not tried to objectively measure how much they helped, nor am I sure how one would do that.

Squeal (Joni Ernst, Senate candidate in Iowa)

Although all the GOP candidates talked about cutting spending, Ernst made it memorable. This helped her stand out and win her primary.

Home (Mitch McConnell, Senator from Kentucky)

McConnell is already leading, but this touching new ad may help him close the deal with Kentucky voters.

Already Fighting for Oklahoma (James Lankford, Senate candidate in Oklahoma)

This ad helped inoculate Lankford, a member of the House of Representatives, against charges that he is a Washington insider by turning his House membership into a positive.

Has My Back (Nikki Haley, Governor of South Carolina)

Haley has a number of effective ads touting her record, but this touching ad is probably the best.

Nice Guy (Cory Gardner, Senate candidate in Colorado)

This ad was so effective, Democrats immediately tried to decry it as a nasty attack on Udall’s family.

Coach (Mike McFadden, Senate candidate in Minnesota)

McFadden is probably fighting a lost cause against Al Franken, but this was an interesting and rather memorable ad.

Anthem (Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin)

Walker kicked off his reelection campaign with this ad touting his record.

 

 

Significant recent polls

Here is an update on some significant recent polls on political races around the country.

First, a CNN poll in North Carolina showed Republican nominee Thom Tillis still trailing incumbent Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan by a narrow margin. This race so far has been one of the more disappointing races for the GOP, as Hagan’s unpopularity offers a prime opportunity to pick up this seat. But there is still time for Tillis to turn it around. One possible complication is the Libertarian’s third party candidate, who is probably taking votes from Tillis.

(R) Tillis 43% (D) Hagan 46% (L) Haugh 7%

Second, a University of New Hampshire poll found incumbent Republican Governor Paul LePage within the margin of error against his Democratic opponent – trailing by only 2%. Here, an independent candidate is complicating things for Democrats, just as he did in 2010 – the only way a Tea Party conservative like LePage has a chance to win in a blue state like Maine.

(R) LePage 38% (D) Michaud 40% (I) Cutler 12%

Third, a South Dakota poll showed Republican candidate Mike Rounds with a double-digit lead over two opponents. Rounds does not have as much support as one would like to see, but the lead is solid.

(R) Rounds 39% (D) Weiland 26% (I) Pressler 24%

Fourth, a PPP poll confirms a new development in the Iowa Senate race – Republican Joni Ernst has slipped slightly ahead, a huge development for the GOP if it holds. The poll shows a narrower margin than the poll released on Saturday by the Des Moines Register which shows Ernst up by 6 points.

(R) Ernst 44% (D) Braley 42%

 

 

Brazil may soon have evangelical President

There’s an interesting story on Reuters today about next month’s presidential election in Brazil.

Marina Silva, an environmentalist running neck and neck in polls with incumbent President Dilma Rousseff, is a Pentecostal Christian who often invokes God on the campaign trail and has said she sometimes consults the Bible for inspiration when making important political decisions.

The article goes on to talk about the growing influence of evangelicals, who numbered only 5 percent of the population in 1970 but grew to nearly a quarter today. It also highlights some similarities and differences between American and Brazilian evangelicals. Basically, Brazilian economic politics are to the left of American politics, and both major candidates, including the evangelical, call themselves socialists and support “robust” welfare programs. The evangelical candidate is also an environmentalist. Obviously, all of these positions would be anathema to most American evangelicals who are conservative like me. But Brazilian evangelicals share American’s opposition to abortion and gay marriage, perhaps even more strongly than we oppose it here, as both are illegal in Brazil and the political environment on social issues has obviously not moved to the left as far as the American environment has.

Here in American politics, I have often wondered why it doesn’t seem possible for any left-leaning individuals to support liberal policies on economics, environmentalism, and other things, while still remaining faithful to the Bible theologically as well as fully opposed to abortion and gay marriage. There’s no logical reason why one couldn’t, it seems to me, and often I think conservative Christians are too “religious” in their economic views, speaking as if socialism is against the Bible. (I think socialism is a bad idea, but more for pragmatic reasons than biblical reasons: I don’t think it works well. Although I do think socialism may infringe on property rights, but there is probably room for disagreement there, biblically speaking). But every time I encounter a Christian who leans toward the left on economics, etc., it seems like inevitably that person can’t be bothered to worry too much about abortion and gay marriage other than paying lip service to opposing abortion – as if the liberal positions always take priority. They may even support gay marriage. And usually, for some reason they tend to be squishy on biblical authority as well: is the bible really inerrant? is homosexual behavior really a sin? They often lean toward “no” on those questions. But Brazil’s politics confirms what I’ve long suspected: there is no necessary, logical connection to being a Christian and supporting conservative economic policies. (Of course, it’s not necessary to be liberal or socialist either, to be clear. Sometimes liberal evangelicals act as though conservatives are unbiblical or something). Here in the U.S., I’m not sure what exactly led to social conservatives aligning with fiscal conservatives and libertarians on economic issues so uniformly, but perhaps the two parties are so thoroughly divided on social issues, particularly abortion, that there is a tendency to conform on other issues as well, in order to fit in.

I wish Brazil’s evangelicals the best. But I do hope they remember what the Lord told the prophet Zechariah (Zechariah 4:6): “Not by might, nor by power, but by my Spirit, says the Lord of hosts.” They may install one of their own in the presidency and continue gaining in influence, but they need to remain humble and remember that the future of their nation is in the Lord’s hands. And power can corrupt an evangelical just like a Catholic or a nonreligious person. Cal Thomas and Ed Dobson, in their excellent book Blinded by Might, detailed the mistakes of the American religious right after their triumph in Reagan’s victory in 1980. I pray Brazil’s evangelicals avoid that mistake, or else Brazil may turn out to be worse off because of it.

 

Ohio Democratic gubernatorial campaign implodes

Being an Ohioan, I took special note of a story in yesterday’s New York Times that details the implosion of the Democratic campaign for governor in Ohio. The Democratic nominee is Ed Fitzgerald, the county executive of Cuyahoga County (the most populous county in the state). For some reason, the Democrats cleared the way for him to run without serious opposition in the primary, even though he was not very well known or tested in a big race. A couple incidents from his past came to light this summer that seriously hurt his candidacy: first, about two years ago he was found by police at 4:30 a.m. in a parked car with a woman who was not his wife. Second, it was learned that he did not have a driver’s license at the time: in fact, he drove for years without a valid license. His campaign has collapsed, losing donors and workers, trailing badly in the polls, and (Democrats worry) threatening the viability of other Democrats running for lower office in the state.

Democratic silliness in Colorado race

Mark Udall must really be feeling the pressure in Colorado.

Udall’s campaign has been decrying a new ad from his opponent Cory Gardner. “To go after my late father…that’s just low,” he said. Other Democrats have taken up the cry. “It’s disgusting…beneath a candidate running for the Senate…Gardner should apologize to Sen. Udall and his family and pull the ad.”

Here is this terrible, low-down attack ad:

Oh my! “My opponent is a really nice guy.” What a disgusting insult! “His dad ran for President”. What a horrible charge! Unthinkable!

Nonsense. Democrats are clearly feeling the heat here. They’ve been blasting Garder for months, attacking him as indifferent or even hostile to women (talk about despicable attacks!), drawing on the “war on women” line that they’ve used before. And it doesn’t seem to be working. Gardner has led in the last five polls. For an attack ad, this one is very mild. In fact, it’s a very good ad, attacking his opponent while looking nice himself. The danger in attack ads is that it will also drive up the negative rating of the candidate airing the ad, because although voters respond to negativity by viewing the “attackee” more negatively, they don’t like negativity and so view the attacker more negatively as well. This one does a good job avoiding that danger, and Udall’s campaign knows it.

You can donate to Gardner’s campaign here.